Electric planes: Blue-sky thinking or preparing for take-off?
Senior Consultant Andrew Horwood looks at the prospects for electric aviation in Aotearoa.
The Swedish have a new word — “flygskam” — meaning “flight shame”, or a guilt or uneasiness about flying given the environmental impacts.
COVID-19 caused global airline emissions to fall off from the 2019 peak of more than 1,000 megatonnes of CO2, down to 600 Mt CO2 in 2020. But post-pandemic the numbers are rebounding: in 2021 aviation generated 720 Mt CO2, accounting for over 2% of global energy-related CO2 emissions that year, according to the International Energy Agency.
Unsurprisingly, governments and industry are looking for ways to reduce emissions from aviation in the pursuit of net zero emissions by 2050. For example, in late 2022 the European Commission approved France’s plan to ban short-haul domestic flights on several key routes with viable rail alternatives, namely, Paris–Bordeaux, Paris–Nantes, and Paris–Lyon.
There the French government has opted for a mode-shift away from aviation. But many airlines are looking beyond fossil fuel sources for their aircraft, to biofuels, hydrogen, or electricity.
If powered from renewable sources, electric aircraft could play an important role in decarbonising air travel. But on what kinds of routes and in what countries? And what are the prospects for Aotearoa?
What our first Emissions Reduction Plan says about aviation
New Zealand’s first ERP sets out strategies, policies, and actions for achieving our first emissions budget and contributing to global net zero by 2050. A specific target for the transport sector is “Reduce the emissions intensity of transport fuel by 10 per cent by 2035” (Target 4 in the Transport chapter).
Emissions intensity measures the volume of emissions against the energy used in transport fuel. Reductions could come from blending traditional liquid fuels with biofuels (including the different types of “sustainable aviation fuel”), or from using “green” hydrogen or renewably generated electricity.
The Emissions Reduction Plan also has three initiatives (under Action 10.3.3) specifically aimed at aviation. These include setting targets for decarbonising domestic aviation, and implementing “a sustainable aviation fuel mandate”.
The third aviation initiative is institutional — “Establish a public-private leadership body focused on decarbonising aviation, including operational efficiencies, infrastructure improvements and frameworks to encourage research, development, and innovation in sustainable aviation.”
Clearly electric aviation could play a key role in supporting each of those initiatives — either directly or, in the case of the sustainable fuel mandate, by rivalling, or reducing the need for, liquid fuel solutions.
But is electric aviation economically viable? And, if so, under what conditions?
Electric planes are taking off overseas — but what are they replacing?
You might expect that, if adopted at scale, electric planes would replace conventional planes, just as we are seeing like replace like with passenger cars. This seems to be where two Australian airlines are heading, with Northern Territory Air Services and Sydney Seaplanes having ordered electric planes.
But United Airlines, the third-largest carrier in the US, has a different vision. It has a contract with Swedish start-up manufacturer Heart Aerospace to buy 30-passenger electric planes from 2028, and wants to use them to replace car travel for trips up to 250 miles (roughly 400 kilometres).
Less than 1% of US travellers travelling that kind of distance choose to fly — they generally prefer to drive and burn fossil fuels. United Airlines intends to give these travellers a new option, potentially with a much smaller carbon footprint, depending on how the electricity is generated.
The choices consumers make will depend on the transport options available and the relative costs in time and money of the different modes of transport. Electric flight may be particularly attractive when it’s not competing with rail, and so countries with established rail networks may be the least well-suited to electric planes.
We have an electric plane in New Zealand — and plans for more
ElectricAir boasts New Zealand’s only electric plane. A social enterprise based at Rangiora Airfield outside Christchurch, ElectricAir offers trial flights in their two-seater Pipistrel Alpha Electro. Customers can even take the controls.
Crucially, operating costs are significantly lower than for a conventional plane. An hour of flying costs just a few dollars, and the plane also needs less maintenance because there are fewer moving parts. The battery for a typical flight can be charged in 45 minutes.
The Alpha Electro is a training plane. ElectricAir believes the aircraft should be able to replace up to 90% of training flights currently done in conventional planes.
OK, but are electric planes on their way for passenger flights in New Zealand?
The short answer is yes.
Marlborough company Sounds Air expects to have at least three electric planes in its fleet by 2026. Sounds Air believes electric passenger aircraft are perfect for the relatively short-range flights it offers. Its nine routes range in size from Wellington–Blenheim at 81 kilometres, to Nelson–Paraparaumu at 154 kms, to Wellington–Taupō at 307 kms.
So all Sounds Air routes are within the 400‑km range targeted by United Airlines in the US. However, unlike United Airlines, Sounds Air intends its electric flights to replace conventional flights on established routes, rather than road transport.
What about Air New Zealand?
National carrier Air New Zealand has indicated it will have an electric aircraft in its fleet by 2030. It may start by carrying only cargo. Air New Zealand sees investing in electric aviation as one part of achieving its aim of net zero emissions by 2050.
Air New Zealand has signed the Target True Zero Airline Demand Statement, which commits the airline to work towards the goal that, from 2030, 30% of all new aircraft serving routes under 750 km will use electric, hydrogen, or hybrid technology.
Several features of the transport picture in Aotearoa would suit electric aviation
Electric planes are likely to be limited in the number of passengers they can take and the distance they can travel. This may make them perfect for relatively short inter-regional flights, as well as pilot training.
Aotearoa is potentially well-suited here, given the relatively small distances between regional centres, which can also typically be serviced by smaller planes than can large centres.
Given New Zealand’s topography and current road networks, electric flights are likely to be much faster than car travel and other non-flying alternatives. We have limited inter-regional rail options, and in particular no high-speed rail. The three-hour-plus ferry trip separating the bottom of the north and the top of the south adds further weight to the case for electric flights between northern and southern regional centres.
A potential obstacle
In New Zealand, the capital costs of electrifying an aviation fleet include the cost of network upgrades to connect to the electricity grid. These costs can be significant.
In March this year the Government released Charging our Future, subtitled “A draft long-term electric vehicle charging strategy for Aotearoa New Zealand”. The Strategy relates mainly to light road vehicles, but it also touches on aviation.
The Strategy’s accompanying discussion document notes that smaller planes capable of limited regional travel may take only one to two hours to charge. But the demand for electricity will increase as the size and range of electric planes increase and as they become more numerous here. That has implications for electricity generation and the capacity of our transmission and distribution networks:
“This necessitates significant investment in network upgrades from EDBs [electricity distribution businesses]. The capital contribution policies of EDBs differ, but some EDBs would require the business investing in EV charging infrastructure to pay for these investments regardless of whether they need all of the additional capacity.”
In other words, under the current settings the costs of a network upgrade will sometimes be placed solely on the business wanting the upgrade, even though others may also benefit. So an airline wanting to expand its electric fleet may need to meet all of the very significant cost of an electricity infrastructure upgrade.
This regulatory setting creates a potentially major first-mover disadvantage in that it allows competitors to free-ride on first movers bearing the full costs.
The Electricity Authority is considering these questions, including reviewing the approach for the cost-recovery of local network upgrades triggered by investment in public chargers.
Watching closely
A range of factors will affect whether the aviation industry invests in electric aircraft. Economic factors are obviously important, such as the upfront and ongoing costs of the aircraft, and the upfront and ongoing costs of the alternatives — including conventional planes burning conventional fuel, conventional planes burning sustainable aviation fuel, and hydrogen-powered planes.
Our airline industry will also be watching closely for any changes by electricity distribution businesses to their capital contribution policies for network upgrades, with or without encouragement from the Electricity Authority.
That will be a key factor in determining whether widespread use of electric planes well and truly takes off or remains as blue-sky thinking — and whether electrification can help alleviate flygskam in New Zealand.